SAN ANTONIO — If the first weeks of June are any indication, South Texans already know the headline of summer 2026: it’s going to be hot. The bigger question — the one that decides whether lawns stay green and reservoirs stay full — is how much rain comes with it.

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the odds favor a summer that runs warmer than normal across Texas, part of a broad band of above-average heat stretching from the Plains into the West. For San Antonio, where summer highs routinely climb into the upper 90s and triple digits, “above normal” is a notable thing to say about an already-scorching season.

On rain, the federal outlook leans the wrong way for anyone hoping for relief. The Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal forecast tilts toward below-normal precipitation across much of the central U.S. and into Texas through the June–August period — extending a dry pattern the region has battled for years and keeping pressure on aquifers, reservoirs and the water restrictions that have become a near-annual feature of San Antonio life.

That said, summer rain here is notoriously hard to forecast. Unlike winter’s steady fronts, San Antonio’s warm-season rain comes mostly from scattered afternoon thunderstorms and the occasional tropical system — hit-or-miss events that can dump two inches on one neighborhood while leaving another bone-dry. Seasonal outlooks describe the odds, not a guarantee, and a single wet week can swing the whole season.

The larger climate story this year is a shifting one. The La Niña pattern that helped suppress Texas rainfall through recent winters has faded toward neutral, and forecasters now favor — by roughly 60 percent — a flip to El Niño by fall. That matters because El Niño generally steers more moisture toward Texas. The catch: El Niño’s wettest influence tends to arrive in fall and winter, not the heart of summer. If drought relief is coming, it may be more of a late-2026 story than a July one.

The tropics are the summer wildcard. NOAA is forecasting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, citing the developing El Niño, which tends to shear storms apart. Fewer systems is good news for coastal safety — but it cuts both ways for a thirsty city. A single tropical storm or its leftover moisture sweeping inland can deliver a summer’s worth of rain to San Antonio in a day or two, and those events remain the biggest single variable in whether the season finishes wet or dry.

For residents, the takeaway is straightforward. Plan for heat first: expect stretches of triple-digit afternoons, heat advisories and the usual reminders to hydrate, check on elderly neighbors, and never leave kids or pets in cars. Assume water restrictions will stick around, and water on your designated day. And stay weather-aware — when storms do fire up, South Texas can flip from drought to flash flooding with little notice, especially across the Hill Country’s creeks and low-water crossings north of the city.

The bottom line: bet on a hot, likely dry summer, hope for a generous tropical system or two, and watch the fall — when a strengthening El Niño could finally tip the scales.

Sources: Seasonal projections from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, NOAA’s 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook, the National Weather Service and drought.gov.